The Commerce Ministry has attributed the sharp revisions in overseas trade data over the previous yr to challenges in getting well timed data from all ports of entry, together with different points, and mentioned efforts are underway to minimise revisions in order that the exim numbers launched each month are 99.99% correct.
In six of the eight months between June 2022 and January 2023, India’s items exports have been revised upwards by greater than $2 billion from the fast estimates launched by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on the fifteenth of the following month. Over the identical interval, merchandise imports numbers have been revised by a median of $2.2 billion , with the import invoice lowered considerably in 4 of these months.
The scale of export revisions shot up between November 2022 and January 2023, averaging an improve of $3.1 billion or nearly 10% of the fast estimates for the interval. The highest export revision up to now this yr was recorded for December 2022 at $3.6 billion, whereas the import invoice noticed the most important replace in September when it was pared by $3.5 billion.
“There are challenges with how we crunch the data, when it is available and what sources are available,” a senior ministry official mentioned in response to a question from The Hindu. “For what we call the quick estimates, the full data from all locations, including remote locations is not received yet. But we give the estimates to see the trends,” the official added.
“As and when we receive from all locations, there are revisions done based on those. This is perhaps not unique to this year, and was there in earlier years as well. As we modernise our systems, have greater digital data captured everywhere and then, in that process, our endeavour is to try and reduce [revisions] as much as possible,” he defined.
Last yr, the ministry had stopped releasing preliminary trade estimates early in a month as there have been sharp revisions within the fast estimates launched a few weeks later.
“We thought we will not have revisions after that. We are still having them and the transition is happening. By 15th of every month, we should have relatively data indicating 99.99% of the trade.. those small aberrations will be there whenever amendments happen to import and export transactions,” he famous, stressing that revisions have been a routine a part of statistical techniques around the globe.
Another official mentioned that latest data revisions have been solely being seen due to the size of modifications — earlier revisions used to be a number of $100 million for a month.
