The authorities’s choice to restrict costs of home pure gasoline from legacy fields to between USD 4-6.5 per million British Thermal Unit (mmbtu) will assist margins for metropolis gasoline distributors, encourage using gasoline, and cut back money stream volatility for upstream producers, Fitch Ratings stated on Wednesday.
“We count on a partial pass-through of the decrease administered value mechanism (APM) gasoline costs, at which home upstream producers provide gasoline to metropolis gasoline distributors, within the costs of compressed pure gasoline (CNG) and home piped pure gasoline (PNG) so as to add to the distributors’ margins within the close to time period,” it said in a statement.
City gas retailers like Indraprastha Gas Ltd and Adani Total Gas Ltd last weekend announced Rs 6-8 cut in CNG and PNG prices, reflecting the cut in input gas prices.
The APM price under the new regime was calculated at USD 7.92, but is capped at USD 6.5 for the rest of April, 24 per cent below levels in October 2022-March 2023.
“We expect such price cuts by city gas distributors and the fixing of a price ceiling to add certainty to domestic natural gas’ price advantage relative to alternative fuels, supporting gas usage for transportation and households, and overall demand in the medium term,” Fitch stated.
The revised mechanism dovetails with India’s goal of accelerating pure gasoline’ share in its power combine.
“We count on the worth flooring and ceiling to cut back the volatility in money flows from gasoline manufacturing for Oil India Limited (OIL) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC). The flooring is larger than APM costs over 2015 to 2021 whereas the ceiling is under present market costs,” it said.
Gas sales accounted for 9-11 per cent of OIL’s and ONGC’s standalone revenues in the financial year ended March 2022 (FY22), and the legacy fields account for the majority of their gas production.
Financial buffers built by OIL and ONGC over the last 18 months, when industry conditions were favourable, will help them to absorb the near-term reduction in APM prices, Fitch said, adding that it expects the cut in gas prices to ease inflationary pressure in the economy, with domestic gas accounting for 55 per cent of India’s gas consumption in the first nine months of 2022-23 fiscal.
Last week, the government revised the APM formula for legacy fields allocated to ONGC and OIL on a nomination basis. Prices for the next month will be 10 per cent of the imported Indian crude basket, reflecting the average between the 26th day of the prior month and 25th day of the current month, and be declared on the current month’s last day, subject to the floor and ceiling.
The changes followed submission of the Kirit Parikh committee’s recommendations in November 2022, when domestic gas prices under the previous mechanism were at a record high.
The pricing formula for deep-water, high-pressure, high-temperature fields is unchanged and set at USD 12.12 per mmBtu for April-September 2023 (USD 12.46 for October 2022-March 2023), which Fitch said maintains the incentives for upstream producers like ONGC and Reliance Industries Ltd to continue developing such fields.
Prices of gas produced from new well or well intervention in legacy fields, which are subject to the floor and ceiling prices, are allowed a premium of 20 per cent on APM prices, and this gas will be allocated to customers for five years.
APM prices will also apply to production-sharing contracts of the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) or Pre-NELP blocks, where the government’s approval of prices is required, but the floor and ceiling will not apply.
“The revised mechanism will maintain the price ceiling over FY24 and FY25, and allow an annual increase in the price ceiling thereafter of USD 0.25,” Fitch stated. “It doesn’t embody any specific timelines for liberalisation of costs.”
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