Former Karnataka Chief Minister and JD(S) chief H.D. Kumaraswamy addressing a roadshow forward of submitting his nominations for the upcoming Karnataka Assembly elections, in Channapatna on April 17.
| Photo Credit: ANI
Amid boisterous Congress strikes and protracted efforts by the BJP to sink roots within the Old Mysore area of southern Karnataka, the Janata Dal(S) — a two-time “kingmaker” over the previous twenty years — might be combating the Assembly election to retain its id and relevance in State politics.
While the celebration assessed its 2018 efficiency as under par regardless of a perceived Vokkaliga consolidation towards the then Congress Chief Minister, Siddaramaiah, the JD(S) goes to the polls with none main undercurrents indicating a consolidation of the dominant land-owning neighborhood from which it attracts energy. Neither has the celebration been ready to widen its footprint past this area.
Sub-regional bastion
In 2018, when it shaped a 14-month authorities led by H.D. Kumaraswamy in alliance with the Congress, the JD(S) gained 30 of 37 its seats, or about 79% of its complete seats, from the Old Mysore area. It gained 50% of the seats within the 10 Vokkaliga-dominated districts (exterior Bengaluru metropolis). This was regardless of its complete vote share coming down by about 2% from the 2013 election determine, which the celebration attributed to a Muslim consolidation in favour of the Congress after Rahul Gandhi referred to as the JD(S) the “B team” of the BJP. The JD(S)’s greatest efficiency got here in 2004, when it gained 58 seats in 2004, forging an alliance first with the Congress after which with the BJP to type governments.
The political local weather has modified since 2019. D.Ok. Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga with chief ministerial ambitions, has been appointed Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president, and is perceived to be a menace towards any consolidation of his neighborhood in favour of the JD(S).
The BJP is making critical inroads into the Old Mysore area. Though its a number of Vokkaliga outreach efforts have backfired in latest months, political observers consider that the arrival of Prime Minister Narendra Modi together with his promise of improvement has resonated with the Vokkaligas. Several extra such visits are within the offing because the election attracts nearer. As a outcome, the normal two-cornered struggle between the JD(S) and the Congress in Vokkaliga-dominated districts can flip into triangular fights in some constituencies.
Riding on an anti-Siddaramaiah wave, the JD(S) blanked out its conventional rival, the Congress, in 2018, with resounding victories in Mandya and Hassan districts the place it gained 13 of the 14 seats.
However, it will not be ready to repeat the feat this time. In Hassan, the celebration’s first household’s residence district, the JD(S) supremo’s elder daughter-in-law took her demand for celebration ticket public. Though the battle has been resolved, it embarrassed the celebration, which already carries the tag of being a “family party”.
Lost legislators
The JD(S) is coming into the electoral fray with out 9 of the legislators elected in 2018. While three went over to the BJP in “Operation Kamala” and two died, the celebration failed to retain these seats in subsequent byelections. In latest weeks, 4 MLAs have stop the celebration, with three going to the Congress and the opposite to the BJP.
Since 2018, the JD(S) has solely gained one byelection within the State. It additionally misplaced the essential Mandya Lok Sabha seat in a high-voltage battle in 2019 to Independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh, who has now declared help to the BJP. In the identical interval, the celebration’s presence within the Upper House was weakened, with its numbers plunging from 16 in 2020 to 9 in 2022.
Though the chances are stacked towards it, the JD(S) received off to an early begin by asserting candidates for 93 seats practically 4 months earlier than the election was introduced. The celebration was bolstered by the nice response in over 90 constituencies by means of which its bold Pancharatna Yatra handed.
Muslim outreach
The JD(S) has been consciously working to ship constructive indicators to the Muslim neighborhood, with C.M. Ibrahim being made the celebration State president. Besides, Mr. Kumaraswamy has been reaching out to non secular leaders, in search of their help.
The yatra confirmed that Mr. Kumaraswamy’s enchantment among the many voters has remained intact, although turnout in his earlier marketing campaign didn’t essentially convert into votes for the celebration. The JD(S) believes that its professional–farmer id nonetheless resonates with the Vokkaligas, and hopes that the practically ₹24,000 crore farm mortgage waiver scheme it applied in 2018-2019 nonetheless stands the celebration in good stead.
While H.D. Deve Gowda — celebration supremo and undisputed Vokkaliga chief — is unlikely to take an lively half in electioneering, Mr. Kumaraswamy’s accessibility and private strategy stay common.
The JD(S) is hoping that anti-Siddaramaiah sentiments amongst Vokkaligas, and the Congress’ infighting may convey them votes within the area, whereas BJP continues to be to make any impression within the rural hinterland.
