Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran expressed confidence that the dangers to India’s projected GDP growth trajectory of 6.5% in 2023-24 had been more evenly balanced now in contrast with just a few months in the past, as sustained growth momentum throughout sectors together with rising non-public investments and public capex spending would show to be buffers towards exterior dangers.
“We are very pleased to have a story of both sustained economic momentum, combined with macro-economic and fiscal stability, and we look forward to another year of solid economic performance by India,” Mr. Nageswaran mentioned in a briefing after the National Statistical Office launched its first nationwide revenue estimates for 2022-23.
While the CEA conceded that the “better than expected [7.2% GDP growth] numbers for 2022-23” would weigh on this yr’s growth, he harassed the significance of taking the momentum into consideration.
“We have seen enough information about the momentum in the purchasing managers’ indices [S&P Global PMI], credit growth, private sector capital formation and the revenue collections of the government, therefore auguring well for its ability to maintain capital investment plans and so on,” he mentioned.
“Anyway, we had projected a lower growth of 6.5% from the 7% estimated for 2022-23… We are prepared to stick our neck out one more time and say that the risks to a 6.5% growth projection for this year are more evenly balanced now, than at the time when we had felt that downside risks dominate,” Mr. Nageswaran mentioned.
“So, in that sense, if anything, we upgrade our assessment of the growth outlook and the confidence that we attach to this number rather than downgrade it,” he mentioned. On economists expressing considerations about insipid non-public consumption spending tendencies, Mr. Nageswaran mentioned there have been indicators of a turnaround in rural demand.
“With the expected pick-up already happening in residential realty construction and the overall industrial activity, employment of labour, which have migrated to rural India [and] will return to urban India, therefore, income transfers to rural India should also happen. So, we are confident that private final consumption expenditure in 2023-24 will be respectable,” he asserted.
