Despite the tempo of worth rise in some meals objects like onions, potatoes and pulses hastening in February, total retail inflation is likely to have stayed at about 5.1% in February, the identical degree as January, Bank of Baroda (BoB) economists stated on Thursday.
Prices of about half of the 20 objects tracked by the financial institution’s Essential Commodities Index (ECI) noticed some momentum build up final month, with the index rising 4.2% year-on-year, in contrast with 3.8% in January.
A pointy uptick in costs was seen in potatoes, which rose 16.6%, tomatoes (up 30.3%), pulses like chana dal or gram dal (15%) and urad (15.5%) in contrast with February 2023 ranges. On a sequential foundation, costs rose for 16 of the 20 commodities in the index, together with onions, greens, rice, pulses, edible oils, and sugar, in comparison with their January costs.
“For the first 5 days of March, the BoB ECI has inched up further by 5.5%, on a year-on-year basis. High frequency price data have seen some momentum in February as well as March,” the financial institution’s economist Dipanwita Mazumdar stated.
“We expect inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to settle at around 5.1% in February̤,” she reckoned. Although base results from the excessive inflation final yr would offer a point of consolation in the approaching months, Ms. Mazumdar stated that if the current broad-based stress in costs persist, the headline inflation charge could not get close to the central financial institution’s 4% goal degree.
While some hailstorms and rain in northern elements of India would possibly trigger supply-side disruption and spike the costs of some crops, pulses stay a priority as their output is anticipated to be sub-optimal in each the Kharif and Rabi seasons.