LUCKNOW: History exhibits {that a} division in Muslium votes in Uttar Pradesh has invariably labored to the benefit of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are not any totally different. The solely distinction this time is {that a} sizeable part of Muslim votes is making ready to separate in favour of BJP which is sure to be an added benefit for the get together.
Muslims account for 19 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s inhabitants and their voting behaviour is more likely to outline the end result on round 24 Lok Sabha seats, having a 20-50 per cent Muslim inhabitants. The Samajwadi Party-Congress seat-sharing deal for the Lok Sabha elections could have raised expectations within the alliance that it’ll consolidate the Muslim vote and fortify the INDIA bloc’s place in a minimum of 24 Muslim-dominated constituencies out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.
However, as elections draw close to, the BSP and AIMIM are set to drive a break up in Muslim votes. A preferred saying in Uttar Pradesh goes thus: ‘Pehla bhai (learn Muslim), Phir Sapai (SP) aur uske baad Congress-I.’ This explains the Muslim voting sample within the state. The BSP, in a shrewd transfer, has fielded 5 Muslim candidates out of seven unofficially introduced to this point.
They embody Aqil Ahmed Patta from Kannauj, a seat thought of a stronghold of SP. Patta had joined BSP just a few months in the past, after crossing over from SP.
The different Muslim candidates are Irfan Saifi from Moradabad, Anish Ahmed Khan aka Phool Babu from Pilibhit, Majid Ali from Saharanpur and Mujahid Hussain from Amroha. The get together had received Amroha and Saharanpur parliamentary seats within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
“There are many more Muslim candidates on the way but we need to wait for the list,” mentioned a celebration insider. The AIMIM can also be making ready to area candidates in about two dozen seats having a sizeable Muslim inhabitants. It is abundantly clear that greater than successful the seats themselves, the AIMIM and BSP are eager to defeat the INDIA constituents (SP and Congress).
The leaders of each, BSP and AIMIM, are conscious {that a} division in Muslim votes will give the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a bonus.
However, there’s additionally a perceptible change within the Muslim temper in Uttar Pradesh and the group is not as hostile in the direction of the BJP because it was once. The ban on triple talaq and the advantages of welfare schemes initiated by the Modi and Yogi governments which have reached Muslim girls, have led to a change in notion.
Afsha Zaidi, a house maker mentioned, “In the past 10 years, the BJP has not harmed us in any way. In fact, we have benefitted under the Modi regime. I do not see anything wrong in voting for BJP — In fact, I will vote for Modi this time.” BJP’s ‘Shukriya Modi Bhai Jaan’ that reached out to Muslim girls, was additionally extremely profitable and elicited an excellent response.
If Muslims vote for big numbers within the UP Lok Sabha polls – as is anticipated — it might lastly break the parable of Muslim voting sample within the state
The Muslim-dominated Lok Sabha seats embody Saharanpur (29.6 per cent), Muzaffarnagar (27 per cent), Bijnor (28 per cent), Nagina (28 per cent), Moradabad (28 per cent), Rampur (42 per cent), Sambhal (22 per cent), Amroha (32 per cent), Meerut (23 per cent), Sitapur (24 per cent), Kairana (23 per cent ), Bareilly (23 per cent), Pilibhit (19 per cent), Shahjahanpur (21 per cent), Bahraich (23 per cent), Shravasti (28 per cent), Dumariaganj (26 per cent) and Lucknow (23 per cent).
The listing additionally consists of Kanpur (19 per cent), Bulandshahr (19 per cent), Baghpat (18.8 per cent), Ghaziabad (16 per cent), Aligarh (19 per cent) and Azamgarh (16 per cent).
