Monsoon 2024: India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall cumulatively in the monsoon season this yr with La Nina circumstances likely to set in by August-September, the IMD mentioned on Monday (April 15). However, there is no such thing as a assure of uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain all through the nation, with local weather change additional rising the variability of the rain-bearing system. According to the local weather scientists, the variety of wet days is decreasing whereas heavy rain occasions (extra rain over a brief interval) are rising, that are ensuing in frequent droughts and floods.
According to the information between 1951-2023, India witnessed above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on 9 events when La Nina adopted an El Nino occasion, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra mentioned at a press convention.
Monsoon 2024
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 p.c of the long-period common (87 cm), he mentioned.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole circumstances are predicted throughout the monsoon season.
Also, the snow cowl in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These circumstances are beneficial for the Indian southwest monsoon, he added.
“Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September,” Mohapatra mentioned.
India obtained “below-average” cumulative rainfall — 820 mm in contrast to the long-period common of 868.6 mm — in 2023, an El Nino yr. Before 2023, India recorded “normal” and “above-normal” rainfall in the monsoon season for 4 years in a row.
El Nino circumstances — periodic warming of floor waters in the central Pacific Ocean — are related to weaker monsoon winds and drier circumstances in India. Three large-scale climatic phenomena are thought-about for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.
The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which happens due to differential warming of the western and japanese sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cowl over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which additionally has an impression on the Indian monsoon by means of the differential heating of the landmass.
The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 p.c of India’s annual rainfall, which is essential for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 p.c of the nation’s GDP.
(With PTI inputs)
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