The Data Point is a bi-weekly publication wherein The Hindu’s Data crew decodes the numbers behind at present’s greatest tales.
The Data Point is a bi-weekly publication wherein The Hindu’s Data crew decodes the numbers behind at present’s greatest tales.
(This article types a a part of the Data Point publication curated by The Hindu’s Data crew. To get the publication in your inbox, subscribe right here.)
Two years for the reason that pandemic outbreak, customers are “revenge shopping” and travelling extra this yr
The starting of autumn in India additionally marks the start of the festival season. Starting with Ganesh Chaturthi in September, the Hindu festival season continues till early November, ending with Diwali. The season is marked by college and workplace holidays, holidays and procuring sprees. During the vacation season, many e-commerce ventures provide engaging reductions to discourage consumers from going to bodily shops. Also, the season creates new job alternatives.
In 2020 and 2021, the festival season was subdued because of the pandemic and associated restrictions. The season that each prospects and suppliers stay up for got here and went with out a lot fanfare. But knowledge present that this time round, Indians had been extra assured concerning the financial system. And with fewer restrictions, public mobility improved, which boosted flight journey and retail gross sales.
Consumer enthusiasm
The share of city customers pessimistic concerning the Indian financial system continued to say no in September 2022 as COVID-19 circumstances and associated restrictions had been fewer, in keeping with the RBI’s shopper confidence index.
Also, in September 2022, CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey questioned households about their monetary situations and the flexibility to buy commodities corresponding to furnishings, tv units and vehicles in comparison with a yr in the past. The outcomes had been captured because the Consumer Sentiment Index (base interval: Sep-Dec 2015 = 100). The rating in September 2022 was 80, significantly greater than 54.7 a yr in the past and 42 in September 2020. Though the rating is but to achieve the pre-pandemic ranges (108 in September 2019), shopper sentiments have picked up considerably in comparison with the primary two pandemic years.
Vehicle gross sales
During the festival interval, households normally have extra disposable revenue and spend on their most-awaited purchases. Many corporations additionally award bonuses to staff. Moreover, banks provide particular offers on automobile and motorbike loans through the vacation season. This leads to an elevated demand for automobiles.
Data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations of India reveals that after two uninspiring festival seasons, car gross sales within the 2022 season have exceeded the pre-pandemic ranges. Between September 26 and October 5 (the Navaratri season), vehicular gross sales reached virtually 5.4 lakh in 2022. The figures had been 3.4 lakh and 4.2 lakh in 2021 and 2020, respectively. During this era in 2019, 4.66 lakh automobiles had been offered.
Mobility and flight journey
With most lockdown-related motion restrictions lifted, public mobility is returning to pre-pandemic ranges. Notably, the rise in mobility was extra pronounced this yr than within the final two festival durations.
According to the Google Mobility Index, between the final week of September and the primary week of October this yr, visits to grocery retailers, pharmacies, parks and retail and recreation centres peaked within the post-pandemic interval, whereas office visits declined.
The index measures visits to varied locations by protecting the baseline (median worth) because the five-week interval of Jan 3 – Feb 6, 2020. So, a constructive worth signifies a rise in visits from the baseline interval and a adverse worth signifies a lower.
From the final week of September to the primary week of October this yr, park visits elevated by 60% to 80% in comparison with the baseline. However, within the corresponding interval in 2021, park visits ranged from -3% to 1%. In 2020 park visits had been 45% decrease than the baseline.
Similarly, visits to retail and leisure functions went up by 10%-20% in comparison with the baseline in 2022. However, within the corresponding interval in 2021, such visits ranged from -7% to -12%. In 2020 such visits had been about 40% decrease than the baseline.
The variety of people travelling by flight can be inching in direction of pre-pandemic ranges. More than one crore passengers flew on home flights in India in August 2022. Owing to motion restrictions and strict COVID-19 protocols, solely 28 lakh passengers had taken home flights in August 2020. And whereas the quantity went as much as 65 lakh in 2021, it was nonetheless solely half of the variety of fliers in August 2019 (1.2 crore).
Despite excessive inflation, people’s enthusiasm this season hints presumably at two issues. Either the pent-up demand and lack of journey within the first two years of the pandemic have resulted in “revenge shopping and travel” in 2022 or there may be a real turnaround within the financial system with revenue ranges significantly better this time round.
Fortnightly figures
7.41% was India’s retail inflation in September, accelerating from 7% in August. September’s retail inflation was the best since April when worth rise quickened to an virtually eight-year excessive of seven.79%. This is the ninth month that inflation has exceeded the 6% higher tolerance threshold mandated for the RBI. Food inflation surged sharply to eight.41% final month — the steepest improve in 22 months.
Nearly 3.15 lakh Right to Information (RTI) complaints and appeals are pending with 26 info commissions throughout India. According to a report by Satark Nagrik Sangathan, the variety of appeals and complaints pending in 2019 was 2.18 lakh. In 2020, the quantity climbed as much as 2.33 lakh and in 2021, the quantity was 2.86 lakh. The highest variety of circumstances was pending in Maharashtra at 99,722, adopted by Uttar Pradesh at 44,482, Karnataka at 30,358, the Central Information Commission at 26,724 and Bihar at 21,346.
6.8% is India’s development forecast within the present fiscal yr, following 8.7% development within the fiscal yr that ended March 31 as per figures launched within the IMF’s October 2022 World Economic Outlook: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis report. The development price for this yr for India has been revised downward by 0.6 proportion factors relative to the IMF’s June 2022 forecast, following a weaker output within the second quarter, and subdued exterior demand, the IMF stated. The forecast for the subsequent fiscal yr stays unaltered at 6.1%.
India ranked 107 out of 121 nations analysed within the 2022 Global Hunger Index. Scoring 29, the nation falls below the ‘serious’ class within the starvation meter. The nation ranks under Sri Lanka (64), Nepal (81), Bangladesh (84) and Pakistan (99), with Afghanistan being the one South Asian nation to lag behind India within the itemizing. The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is a device for comprehensively measuring and monitoring starvation at international, regional, and nationwide ranges. GHI scores are primarily based on the values of 4 part indicators – undernourishment, youngster stunting, youngster losing and youngster mortality. Countries are divided into 5 classes of starvation primarily based on their rating, which are ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘serious’, ‘alarming’ and ‘extremely alarming’.
Almost 70% of untamed populations of monitored animal species have plummeted within the final 50 years in keeping with a report by World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF). In biodiversity-rich areas corresponding to Latin America and the Caribbean, the determine for animal inhabitants loss is as excessive as 94%. The report discovered that the principle drivers of wildlife loss are habitat degradation resulting from growth and farming, exploitation, the introduction of invasive species, air pollution, local weather change and illness.
Chart of the week
The chart reveals the month-wise power inflation price within the European Union since 2010. Energy-related inflation in Europe began rising publish the struggle and accelerated to over 40% in current months. While the general inflation and food-related inflation have surged to 10-year highs in current days, their improve pales compared to the rise in power costs. The impression of rising power prices was felt throughout all European nations.
Read extra concerning the peaking inflation in Europe for the reason that Ukrainian invasion right here.
Flashback
State-owned oil advertising corporations IOC, HPCL and BPCL might for the primary time publish the second consecutive quarterly loss with a mixed lack of ₹21,270 crore in July-September, as they held petrol and diesel costs under the price of manufacturing for a very long time, in keeping with a PTI report. This explains why regardless of a lower in worldwide gas costs, the retail gas costs at gas stations in India have remained the identical in India to compensate for the losses of oil advertising corporations within the earlier durations. The knowledge level titled “Why petrol prices in India have remained unchanged despite falling crude oil costs” printed on September 1, 2022, defined why retail petrol costs remained unchanged on the gas stations whereas the crude costs (Indian basket) had lowered by round $20/barrel.
Aviation agency CAPA has estimated that the home airline trade in India might publish losses of over $1.7 billion this fiscal yr. IndiGo and SpiceJet have already reported losses of ₹1,064.30 crore and ₹789 crore respectively within the April-June quarter of the present fiscal yr, as per PTI studies. Through knowledge factors titled, “Despite higher passenger count in November, aviation sector yet to come out of woods” printed on December 26, 2021, and “Despite increase in flyers, Indian airlines struggle to turn a profit” printed on April 1, 2022, the Hindu Data crew had defined why the Indian airways had been struggling to show a revenue regardless of leisure in motion restrictions resulting in a rise within the variety of flyers.
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