India’s items commerce numbers for February and March 2023 have been revised by over $10 billion from preliminary estimates. Image for representational goal solely.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu
India’s items commerce numbers for February and March 2023 have been revised by over $10 billion from preliminary estimates, and the general export-import figures for final 12 months have been scaled down by round $3 billion {dollars} every, with consultants flagging petroleum shipments as the principle driver for the terribly excessive revisions of latest export data.
While exports had been earlier reckoned to have grown 6% in 2022-23 to hit $447.46 billion, that quantity has now been pared to $444.4 billion, reflecting a 5.3% rise from 2021-22. The import invoice for final 12 months has additionally been scaled down from $714.24 billion to $711.85 billion, indicating a progress of 16.1%. The commerce deficit for the 12 months has risen 40.8% to $267.45 bn, barely greater than the 40% estimated earlier.
For February, items exports have been revised greater by nearly $3.1 billion from the preliminary estimate of $33.9 billion to about $37 billion. The month’s import invoice was raised by over $1.93 billion, the second-highest upward revision for a month, after a $3.08 billion uptick from December’s preliminary estimate.
For March, against this, exports appear to have been scaled down by $3.03 billion from the preliminary $38.38 billion estimate to $35.35 billion, translating into a pointy 20.7% dip year-on-year, pegging outbound shipments’ worth at nearly the identical stage as March 2021. Imports for the final month of 2022-23 have additionally been revised downward by round $2.4 billion to $55.72 billion.
“Data revisions amounting to over $500 million a month are not normal, but we have been seeing significantly higher revisions over the past year and a half compared to the period before that,” Vivek Kumar, economist at QuantEco Research advised The Hindu.
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Interestingly, the revisions within the export numbers are largely dominated by adjustments within the figures for petroleum exports, Mr. Kumar mentioned. The revisions in core export objects or segments like gems and jewelry have been insignificant against this.
That India’s oil imports from Russia went up after the Ukraine battle could also be a part of the set off for the fluctuating petroleum commerce numbers. However, Mr. Kumar identified that the sharp revisions on the petroleum exports entrance had begun four-five months earlier than the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022.
“It is very puzzling and raises uncertainty on the outlook for India’s current account deficit and thereby rupee. With average monthly upward revision in net trade deficit to the tune of $1.5 billion, the cumulative for the year could add up to $18 billion. Such sizeable revision in trade deficit data turns analysis somewhat challenging,” the economist mentioned.
“One would appreciate greater understanding of the trigger for the higher data revisions in recent months and the context for greater concentration of these revisions in the petroleum sector,” he pressured.
