Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran. File
| Photo Credit: PTI
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday expressed hope that the GDP growth for the present monetary 12 months will exceed the projected 7% in view of the anticipated revision of excessive frequency information.
On Tuesday, the second advance estimate launched by the National Statistical Office (NSO) maintained the growth projection of seven% as was projected within the first advance estimate which was launched in January.
“Given the high frequency indicators and the pace at which they are recovering, I do believe that the current year’s (GDP numbers)… are more likely to (be) revised upward than downward,” he mentioned right here.
Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices within the 12 months 2022-23 is estimated at ₹159.71 lakh crore as towards the primary revised estimate of GDP for the 12 months 2021-22 of ₹149.26 lakh crore.
The growth in actual GDP throughout 2022-23 is estimated at 7% as in comparison with 9.1% in 2021-22, the NSO had mentioned.
The growth slowed to 4.4% within the October-December quarter, primarily attributable to a contraction within the manufacturing sector, as per the information launched by the NSO.
On Tuesday, the NSO revised GDP growth information for the previous three years — 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 — and likewise launched the second advance estimate of GDP for 2022-23.
While the growth charge for 2021-22 has been revised up by 40 foundation factors to 9.1% from 8.7%, the GDP for 2020-21 too has been revised upwards to (-) 5.8% from (-) 6.6%.
For 2019-20 additionally, the growth has been revised upwards to three.9% from 3.7%.
Nageswaran mentioned the rising rates of interest needn’t essentially be a reason behind decrease growth however merely displays the truth that there may be wholesome underlying demand for credit score.
Real rate of interest shouldn’t be very excessive in the meanwhile, he mentioned, including there may be pent up demand in sure sectors.
About rural inflation remaining excessive, he mentioned it doesn’t keep in mind the truth that bulk of the inhabitants may be getting their important meals grains at zero value.
On the financial advantage of digitisation, he mentioned that digital transactions allow improve in formalisation.
“My guesswork is that it is adding between 30 and 50 basis points per annum to the provisional GDP… Nobody has yet done the proper estimation of what the digital infrastructure is adding to the overall potential economic growth (and) that needs to be worked out,” he mentioned.
