The meeting elections in Tamil Nadu usually are not solely essential as a result of they may put an finish to the talk on who sits on the throne for the subsequent 5 years but additionally as a result of they may decide the form of Dravidian politics within the absence of the charismatic J Jayalalithaa of the ruling AIADMK and the colossal M Karunanidhi of the DMK, in line with political consultants.
Their attraction among the many citizens is plain even after their demise, with each the Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) invoking their legacies whereas asking for votes of their names.
“Independent of the results, this election is expected to consolidate the post-Jaya, post-Karunanidhi Dravidian political hold over the state. Critics cannot anymore attribute the Dravidian success story to filmi charisma, though the freebies charge can become shriller,” political analyst N Sathiya Moorthy stated, whereas additionally referring to the assorted doles introduced by either side to woo voters.
Both Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi have been cine personalities-turned-political giants, and fierce opponents of their political careers.
Senior journalist Kavitha Muralidharan stated it “has been repeatedly pointed out that this will be the first elections in several decades without (former chief ministers) Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa”. Muralidharan added: “The perceived vacuum is filled by new players…”
All stated, the elections to the 234-member Tamil Nadu meeting, on the floor, are a barometer to gauge the recognition of chief minister Edappadi Palaniswami, or EPS, and DMK president MK Stalin.
The DMK has accused Palaniswami of surrendering on the toes of Jayalalithaa aide Vk Sasikala, who has now stop politics, to get the state’s prime job. Stalin has additionally come down closely on the AIADMK authorities for its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which the opposition camp says is attempting to pressure Hindi and north Indian tradition on the southern state.
Notwithstanding the fees, Palaniswami has steadied the AIADMK ship after a tumultuous part following Jayalalithaa’s demise in December 2016, placing an finish to a bitter infighting and making a loyal assist base.
Traditionally, Tamil Nadu has modified its authorities each 5 years, however chief minister Jayalalithaa broke that cycle in 2016 by coming to energy for a second straight time period. Hence, Stalin, who accuses the federal government of corruption and non-delivery of primary amenities, fancies his possibilities this time round. So a lot in order that he even advised News18 in an interview that he was anticipating a “tsunami” of assist in favour of the DMK.
Udhayanidhi Stalin, his son who’s making his election debut this 12 months, exuded the identical confidence on voting day. “All of you please go and vote. We are very confident of victory,” he stated.
Stalin, Karunandhi’s son and inheritor, has been in a position to sew up an opposition coalition. Now, he’s eying the throne because the DMK alliance’s chief ministerial candidate.
“The election in Tamil Nadu is important as it will help decide who among Edappadi Palaniswami and MK Stalin has the people’s confidence. It will also help indicate if any of the other entrants have any significant vote share to claim to be an alternative at some stage,” stated Sumanth Raman, one other political analyst.
Muralidharan agreed, declaring that lots is at stake for the ruling get together. “This election will decide which way Tamil Nadu is headed in terms of the future of the AIADMK and Edappadi Palaniswami’s leadership.”
For EPS, a victory will imply the strengthening of his place and finishing the post-Jayalalithaa consolidation course of. On the opposite palms, knives may very well be out in his personal get together, and elsewhere, in case of a loss.
“A victory for AIADMK may not rattle the DMK leadership as much as the other way round…,” Moorthy stated.
Then there may be the BJP issue. The nationwide get together has put in critical efforts to discover a foothold within the Dravidian state the place it has been traditionally weak.
“This election is where the BJP is seriously trying to get its act together. I think it was altogether different before. But this time, the BJP is among the parties vying to fill the perceived vacuum,” Muralidharan stated.
Tamil Nadu and the neighbouring Union Territory (UT) of Puducherry, which can also be voting on Tuesday, are key to the BJP’s southern technique.
“…a poll victory in Puducherry could be the springboard for the BJP to dive into the seat of power in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, where the two Dravidian majors, the DMK and the AIADMK, have been holding the fort…since 1967, when the Congress lost the elections,” senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh wrote for News18.
He added that the BJP’s plan may very well be to usher in enormous growth and infra initiatives into the tiny UT, create jobs, and elevate the usual of residing after guaranteeing the victory of the alliance that includes the BJP there. “This, the saffron camp hopes, will mean that voters across the borders in Tamil Nadu will burn with jealousy and end up craving for the lotus (the BJP’s poll symbol). In that case, the 2026 election could be a good harvest time,” he wrote.
Raman stated the elections in Puducherry have been important as they may “herald the implosion of the Congress” in one other state/UT, stressing that there have been possibilities of the BJP’s emergence “in an area hitherto considered hostile for the saffron party”.
But Moorthy had a phrase of warning for the BJP “…politics in the UT is too complex to be able to follow from distant Delhi. One wrong step, and that’s it.”
