Washington: India and Pakistan may get engaged right into a large-scale war that neither aspect desires, a US intelligence report has warned whereas exploring the chances of miscalculations resulting in a war in South Asia.
The evaluation is a part of the Global Trends report produced each 4 years by the US authorities’s National Intelligence Council. The report was launched in Washington just lately.
The report focuses on each speedy and distant futures and is designed to assist policymakers anticipate the forces prone to form the world within the subsequent 5 to twenty years.
The US intelligence report informed Congress that India, beneath Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is extra possible than up to now to reply with navy power to perceived or actual Pakistani provocations,
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in its Annual Threat Assessment report to the US Congress, stated though a common war between India and Pakistan is unlikely, crises between the 2 are prone to change into extra intense, risking an escalatory cycle.
“Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations, and heightened tensions raise the risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” it stated.
India and Pakistan are with out excessive commissioners in one another’s capital for the reason that relations between the 2 international locations nosedived after India withdrew the particular standing of Jammu and Kashmir and bifurcated the state into two union territories in August 2019.
India has stated it needs regular neighbourly relations with Pakistan in an surroundings freed from terror, hostility and violence and that the onus is on Islamabad to create an surroundings freed from terror and hostility.
According to the ODNI report, the combating in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria has a direct bearing on US forces, whereas tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan stay a priority for the world.
The iterative violence between Israel and Iran, the exercise of overseas powers in Libya, and conflicts in different areas, together with Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, have the potential to escalate or unfold, it stated.
On Afghanistan, the ODNI report assessed that prospects for a peace deal will stay low throughout the subsequent yr.
“The Taliban is prone to make beneficial properties on the battlefield, and the Afghan Government will wrestle to carry the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws assist. Kabul continues to face setbacks on the battlefield, and the Taliban is assured it will possibly obtain navy victory,” it stated.
“Afghan forces proceed to safe main cities and different authorities strongholds, however they continue to be tied down in defensive missions and have struggled to carry recaptured territory or reestablish a presence in areas deserted in 2020,” the report stated.
(With Agency inputs)
