Last Updated: March 01, 2023, 15:46 IST
India is now experiencing below-average rainfall. Although monsoon rainfall might be lower than 100%, different components can even be at play.
The reverse of El Nino, which is a development of extraordinary warming of the Pacific Ocean’s floor waters, is La Nina.
El Nino, a climatic phenomenon that’s anticipated to decrease monsoon rainfall to under 90% of the long-period common, has put India vulnerable to a drought this 12 months, in accordance to Institute of Climate Change Studies Director DS Pai. According to Pai, who participated in a Moneycontrol panel dialogue, the consequences of the excessive temperatures introduced on by El Nino might final for a 12 months.
“El Nino after three years of La Nina appears seemingly this 12 months. In 1952, 1965, and 1972, the situation was related to drought when the monsoon was under 90. The identical state of affairs is coming again now,” Pai said.
The opposite of El Nino, which is a trend of extraordinary warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters, is La Nina. La Nina is linked to a lack of rainfall and drought in India and its surrounding areas. This is not a good sign for India where agriculture is the source of livelihood for the majority of the population. There may be a protracted dry period due to the probable El Nino influence. The following year may be the warmest if El Nino peaks in the winter and persists until the spring of 2024. If El Nino persists, the temperature record could be broken in 2024, according to Pai.
“A few more days of high heat are likely. By May, we anticipate it to become neutral. El Nino begins to develop in the Pacific during the spring and picks up steam over the winter. El Nino forecasting is challenging at first. To forecast the El Nino scenario and its effects on the weather pattern, we must wait one to two months. El Nino has caused nine monsoons since 1950 to have insufficient rainfall, “DS Pai said.
India is now experiencing below-average rainfall. Although monsoon rainfall can be less than 100%, other factors will also be at play. La Nina is still going strong and will take some time to become a permanent phenomenon. Rainfall in September, the final month of the monsoon, may be impacted by El Nino. It is vital to how the monsoon will behave at the start, according to Pai.
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