It will be known as a case of 50:50. Almost on one out of two events since 2006, the celebration that wins an Assembly byelection has efficiently defended the seat in the following normal election to the Assembly.
Perhaps, this side of the latest historical past of byelections in the State triggers the two principal gamers — the DMK and the AIADMK — to strategy any byelection with a excessive diploma of depth, as seen not too long ago in Erode (East).
In the final 17-odd years, there have been 44 byelections, of which Thiruparankundram had byelections twice throughout the time period of the fifteenth Assembly (2016-21). One constituency, Ilayangudi, was merged with Manamadurai throughout the 2008 delimitation train. Effectively, the quantity of byelections thought of has gone all the way down to 42.
In the interval beginning 2006, Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar, too, witnessed two byelections however throughout the lifetime of totally different Houses — one in the 14th Assembly and one other in the fifteenth.
Of the efficient quantity of 42, the DMK-led entrance and the AIADMK retained 22 seats with the ruling celebration accounting for 13 and the latter eight.
The remaining seat, Thiruporur, went in favour of the VCK, an ally of the DMK, throughout the 2021 Assembly election. But for two seats (Tiruchendur and Cumbum), the remaining 12 seats defended efficiently by the DMK-led coalition had been all received in April-May 2019, when the Assembly byelections passed off for 22 constituencies.
Tiruchendur and Cumbum, which had bypolls in August 2009, remained in the possession of the DMK in the 2011 Assembly election too.
In the 2021 Assembly election, the AIADMK was in a position to retain solely 4 (Pappireddipatti, Harur, Sulur and Nilakottai) of the 9 constituencies the place it received in 2019.
The organisation retained, throughout the 2016 election, three different constituencies (Sankarankoil, Yercaud and Srirangam) the place it received in the byelections throughout 2012-15.
Of the 20 seats that went to totally different events in the following normal elections, the AIADMK misplaced 10 seats, whereas the DMK-led mix couldn’t retain 9. The Independent — AMMK founder T.T.V. Dhinakaran — accounted for the lone seat. Among the seats that the principal Opposition celebration misplaced in 2021 had been Manamadurai and Sattur, as soon as thought to be strongholds.
Thiruparankundram and Pennagaram had been the two constituencies that the DMK received in 2019 and 2010 byelections, however it suffered defeat in these seats in the 2021 and 2011 normal elections.
The distinction in the voting behaviour between a by-election and the overall election could possibly be seen in Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar, the place former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa received by 1.5 lakh votes in the 2015 by-election. The subsequent yr, her margin went all the way down to lower than 40,000 votes. An essential issue was that the DMK didn’t area its nominee in R.Ok. Nagar in 2015.
