Validating the BJP’s claims, eminent political strategist Prashant Kishor mentioned the ruling occasion will add considerably to its seats and vote share in south and east India, the 2 areas the place its maintain is weak-to-non-existent, barring Karnataka.
In an interplay with PTI editors, Kishor additionally mentioned regardless of the BJP’s obvious dominance, neither the occasion nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi is invincible, stating that the opposition had three distinct and reasonable possibilities of stopping the BJP juggernaut however frittered away the alternatives due to laziness and misplaced methods.
“They (BJP) will either be first or second party in Telangana which is a big thing. They will be number one in Odisha for sure. You would be surprised as, in all likelihood, to my mind, the BJP is going to be the number one party in West Bengal,” he mentioned. In Tamil he mentioned, BJP’s vote share could hit double-digit share.
Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Kerala collectively account for 204 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha however the BJP couldn’t cross 50 seats in all these states put collectively both in 2014 or 2019 when it gained 29 and 47 constituencies respectively.
He, nonetheless, asserted that the BJP is unlikely to win 370 seats, its goal set for the polls. In Andhra Pradesh, the place meeting polls shall be held alongside the Lok Sabha elections, he mentioned Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy will discover it “very difficult” to come again. Kishor had labored for Reddy in 2019 when his YSRC occasion had vanquished the incumbent Telugu Desam Party, now a BJP ally.
Reddy, like former Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel, has gone right into a “provider” mode for his constituents, as an alternative of being a fulfiller of individuals’s aspirations. He likened the state of affairs to the yesteryear monarchs who took care of their individuals with doles and largesse however nothing extra.
Similarly, Reddy has ensured money switch to individuals however has completed little to present jobs or increase the stagnating growth of the state, he mentioned.
Speaking of the Lok Sabha polls ranging from April 19, he mentioned the BJP will really feel the warmth provided that the opposition, particularly the Congress, can make sure that it loses a minimum of round 100 seats in its strongholds of north and west India. And that’s not going to occur, he says.
“The BJP will be able to hold its ground in these regions,” he mentioned.
The BJP has made a significant and visual push to broaden in south and east India over time as its prime leaders like Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have frequented these states. On the opposite hand, the opposition has made little effort in these states.
“Count the number of visits the prime minister had made to Tamil Nadu in the last five years versus Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi or any other opposition leader for that matter made in battleground states. Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success,” he mentioned in an obvious swipe at Rahul Gandhi.
Asked about his tackle Rahul Gandhi’s reported reluctance to contest from his household’s pocket borough Amethi after shedding the seat to Smriti Irani in 2019, he mentioned the opposition occasion can not win the nation by profitable Kerala alone.
“If you do not win in UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, there is no benefit if you win from Wayanad. Strategically, I can say that letting that space (Amethi) go will only send a wrong message,” Kishor mentioned.
He famous that Modi had chosen to contest from Uttar Pradesh in addition to his house state Gujarat in 2014 “because you cannot win India unless you win the Hindi heartland or have a significant presence in the Hindi heartland.” With opposition events coming collectively to type the INDIA bloc to tackle the BJP, he mentioned an alliance is neither fascinating nor efficient to defeat the ruling occasion as there’s already a one-on-one contest in practically 350 seats.
The BJP has been profitable as a result of events just like the Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP and Trinamool Congress are unable to take it head-on in their very own turfs, he mentioned.
They haven’t any narrative, face or agenda, he mentioned.
Kishor, although, rejected solutions {that a} third straight win will clear the trail for a protracted period of BJP domination, noting that the decline of the Congress started after it registered its largest win in 1984 and has since been unable to come to energy by itself.
“This is a big illusion,” he mentioned of the BJP’s perceived unstoppable march beneath Modi, whereas noting that opposition events, particularly the Congress, failed to capitalise at any time when the ruling occasion was on the backfoot after 2014.
He mentioned the BJP had a protracted barren section electorally in 2015 and 2016 when it misplaced a number of meeting polls besides in Assam however the opposition allowed it to make a comeback.
The occasion once more had a poor run post-demonetisation after its win in the Uttar Pradesh meeting polls in 2017 when it virtually misplaced energy in Gujarat and was defeated in a number of states in 2018, however the Congress “blundered” in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Modi suffered from a dip in his approval scores following the Covid outbreak in 2020 and the BJP misplaced badly in West Bengal. Instead of mounting any problem, opposition leaders sat at their houses, permitting the prime minister to make a political comeback, he mentioned.
“If you keep dropping catches, the batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batter,” Kishor mentioned.
As a political observer, he’s extra targeted on the post-poll situation as to what’s going to occur if Modi will get one other large mandate, extra in order the prime minister has often spoken about “big decisions” to be taken in his third time period.
While BJP supporters are completely happy about “fundamental changes” coming, he mentioned, these opposed to the occasion ideologically or in any other case are anxious if the massive choices will adversely influence the Constitution or democracy. People in the center are additionally genuinely involved, he mentioned.
Kishor has labored for a lot of main events, together with the BJP, Congress and regional satraps, of various ideological moorings since 2014 however has devoted himself to his Jan Suraj Yatra in his house state Bihar since October 2022 with a acknowledged purpose to usher in a brand new politics in the state.
(This story has not been edited by News18 workers and is revealed from a syndicated information company feed – PTI)
