When Nigeria’s navy claimed Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau had been badly wounded in an air strike 2016, the jihadist chief quickly appeared in a video to disclaim one other of the various studies of his impending demise. Over the weekend, it was an audio from a rival jihadist group lastly claiming Shekau had died, detonating explosives to kill himself relatively than give up after a raid on his forest stronghold by his Islamic State-allied enemies.
The Boko Haram warlord’s demise marks a significant shift in Nigeria’s battle, probably permitting IS jihadists to consolidate and additional problem an already stretched military of their lengthy warfare. In the audio obtained by AFP, a voice apparently of Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) commander Abu Musab Al-Barnawi confirmed Shekau killed himself whereas on the run from ISWAP fighters.
The audio was not dated and Boko Haram has not given any assertion. Nigeria’s military has warily stated solely that it was investigating for the reason that studies about Shekau first emerged two weeks in the past. “Shekau most well-liked to be humiliated within the hereafter to getting humiliated on Earth. He killed himself immediately by detonating an explosive,” said the audio given to AFP by a source who delivered past ISWAP statements.
“We are so comfortable,” the voice stated, portraying Shekau as “the large troublemaker.”
The audio came two weeks after initial reports from intelligence sources that Shekau had been badly wounded or possibly died after trying to kill himself to avoid capture by Barnawi. Soon after those reports, infighting between the two factions intensified. ISWAP fighters moved against Boko Haram commanders who refused to surrender and join their ranks, intelligence sources said.
But any attempted takeover of Shekau’s territory and fighters could be tough. Boko Haram has factions around northeast Nigeria’s border areas and the Lake Chad region that may challenge ISWAP’s attempts to consolidate, analysts said.
The two factions have skirmished in the past since ISWAP split from Boko Haram in 2016, objecting to Shekau’s indiscriminate targeting of Muslim civilians and use of women suicide bombers. ISWAP has since emerged as the more dominant force, targeting the army in large scale attacks even as troops withdraw from smaller bases into better defended “super camp” garrisons.
Barnawi has already drawn in some commanders from Shekau’s faction, recognized as Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad or JAS, and brought over his Sambisa stronghold, intelligence sources stated.
But different pro-Shekau factions like one on the Chad-Niger border are holding out.
“A key variable is after all in what state ISWAP comes out of this, and the way a lot territory, males and weaponry they’re able to reintegrate… and at what value,” said Vincent Foucher, a fellow for the French National Centre for Science Research.
“ISWAP is in a strong position, they have reached out to Shekau’s commanders and have had some success. But the jury is still out for some commanders.”
Key determine in battle
Under Shekau’s management, Boko Haram turned massive areas of northeast Nigeria right into a no-go territory, proclaiming a “caliphate” in 2014. Only a major offensive in 2015 by Nigerian troops backed by soldiers from Cameroon, Chad and Niger forced Shekau’s jihadists from most of the areas.
The conflict has ebbed and flowed since then, while more than 40,000 people have been killed and another two million more displaced from their homes. Shekau often appeared in videos to rant against Western leaders and taunt the army for failing once again to kill him.
But he gained most international fame in 2014 when his fighters kidnapped 276 schoolgirls, aged between 12 and 17, from the remote town of Chibok. Seven years later, more than 100 are still missing.
“It makes no difference for us because, had it been that he has been killed by Nigerian security, yes, we will feel that Nigeria is triumphed,” stated Sambido Hosai, a former chairman of the Chibok group, requested about Shekau’s demise.
“But it is nonetheless between insurgents themselves — simply one other group which implies that one other group is taking supremacy and that group could even be deadlier than him.”
Some Boko Haram factions may decide to fight on autonomously even without Shekau, analysts said, but the group has lost a central figure. “If the incorporation of JAS factions into ISWAP goes ahead, ISWAP will have access to these fighters, their experience as well as their weaponry,” stated Yan Saint-Pierre at Modern Security Consulting Group.
“Symbolically, for his followers although, it is the top of an period. The 12 years of riot had been primarily outlined by Abubakar Shekau.”
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