S&P Global Ratings on Monday, June 26, 2023, retained India’s GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will likely be the quickest rising financial system amongst Asia Pacific nations.
The GDP growth forecast for the present and the following fiscal has been saved unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of home resilience.
Also learn: India’s GDP expanded 6.1% in 2022-23’s final quarter
“We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
“The medium-term growth outlook stays comparatively stable. The Asian rising market economies stay among the many quickest rising ones in our world growth outlook by 2026,” said Louis Kuijs, Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.
S&P said retail inflation is likely to soften to 5 per cent this fiscal from 6.7 per cent, and the RBI is expected to cut interest rates only early next year.
‘Inflation to remain under 5%’
“In India, beneath the belief of regular monsoons, we anticipate headline shopper inflation to melt to five per cent in fiscal 2024 from 6.7 per cent. Softer crude costs and tempering of demand will carry down gas and core inflation, respectively.
“The inflation and charge hike cycles have peaked, in our opinion. But we anticipate the Reserve Bank of India to chop charges solely in early 2024, because it desires to see shopper inflation transferring to 4 per cent–the centre of its goal vary,” Kuijs stated.
S&P has lowered the growth forecast for China to five.2 per cent from 5.5 per cent for 2023.
“For the rest of the region, we have left it broadly unchanged, in part because of domestic resilience,” S&P stated.
