Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: The Tamil Nadu meeting elections witnessed an enormous tussle primarily between the ruling AIADMK and MK Stalin-led DMK. The AIADMK is contesting this election in alliance with the BJP whereas the DMK has partnered with Congress. Tamil Nadu witnessed single-phase polling on April sixth amid the rising Covid circumstances and the state registered an enormous voter turnout of 72.78%.
While, the outcomes for the 234-member Tamil Nadu legislative meeting might be introduced on May 2nd, ABP News together with CVoter carried out an Exit ballot to know the temper of the state.
After polling, the information obtained reveals a Stalin-led DMK rising victorious with a transparent majority bagging the seats within the vary of 160-172. The incumbent AIADMK- led alliance is anticipated to be restricted to 58 to 70 seats within the state. In 2016 Assembly elections, AIADMK – led alliance had emerged victorious on 134 seats and DMK –led coalition managed to nook 98 seats.
The magic determine is 118, the minimal seats required for a celebration or a coalition to stake declare for the federal government formation.
| PARTY-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS | |||
| Alliance Seats: Tamil Nadu | From | To | Seats |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 160 | to | 172 |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 58 | to | 70 |
| MNM | 0 | to | 2 |
| AMMK | 0 | to | 2 |
| Others | 0 | to | 3 |
| Total | 234 | ||
| REGION-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS | ||||||
| REGIONS | AIADMK+ | DMK+ | AMMK | |||
| Range of seats | From | To | From | To | From | To |
| Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin | 7 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
| Greater Chennai Region | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Kongu Nadu in West | 17 | 19 | 33 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| Pallava Nadu in North | 8 | 10 | 36 | 38 | 0 | 1 |
| Pandiya Nadu in South | 21 | 23 | 33 | 35 | 0 | 2 |
| Puddichery Region | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| Grand Total | 58 | 70 | 160 | 172 | 0 | 4 |
Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll: Vote share predictions
Translated to vote share, the ABP-CVoter Exit Polls has revealed that Stalin’s DMK is the primary selection for individuals in Tamil Nadu. According to the survey information, the vote share of DMK and alliance companions will witness a bounce of seven.9% from 38.8% in 2016 to 46.7% in 2021, whereas the vote share of AIADMK – led coalition will plummet by 8.7% from 43.7% in 2016 to 35% in 2021. Other outfits will proceed to stay marginal political gamers within the state
| PARTY-WISE VOTE SHARE | |||
| Party Alliance | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| UPA (DMK+Congress+Others) | 38.8 | 46.7 | 7.9 |
| NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others) | 43.7 | 35 | -8.7 |
| MNM | 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| AMMK | 0 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Others | 17.5 | 14.5 | -3 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 0 |
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| REGIONS | AIADMK+ | DMK+ | AMMK | OTH | Total |
| Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin | 33.1 | 51.8 | 4.3 | 10.08 | 100 |
| Greater Chennai Region | 34.7 | 40.6 | 3.8 | 20.9 | 100 |
| Kongu Nadu in West | 38.6 | 43.9 | 3.2 | 14.3 | 100 |
| Pallava Nadu in North | 31.5 | 51.6 | 2.7 | 14.2 | 100 |
| Pandiya Nadu in South | 39 | 40.4 | 4.6 | 15.7 | 100 |
| Puddichery Region | 27.9 | 50.8 | 4.3 | 17 | 100 |
| Grand Total | 35 | 46.7 | 3.8 | 14.5 | 0 |
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REGION-WISE VOTE SWING: 2021
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| SWING | AIADMK+ | DMK+ | AMMK | OTH | Total |
| Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin | -11.6 | 12.1 | 4.3 | -4.8 | 0 |
| Greater Chennai Region | -10.9 | -1.2 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Kongu Nadu in West | -8.2 | 7 | 3.2 | -2 | 0 |
| Pallava Nadu in North | -8.7 | 12.4 | 2.7 | -6.4 | 0 |
| Pandiya Nadu in South | -6.9 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Puddichery Region | -7.4 | 14.1 | 4.3 | -11 | 0 |
| Grand Total | -8.7 | 7.9 | 3.8 | -3 | 0 |
This election is a crucial one for Tamil Nadu as that is the primary meeting ballot to occur with out the towering presence of titans M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa. The outcomes this time round will reveal if AIADMK can stand by itself within the absence of “Amma” and whether or not Karunanidhi’s son Stalin has been in a position to inherit the vast following of his father.
(The current opinion ballot / survey was carried out by C Voter Services Pvt. Ltd. The methodology used is Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews [CATI] for Opinion Polls and Face to face methodology for Exit Poll and the pattern measurement for a similar is 2,30,500 (sum of all opinion and exit polls in all states); the survey was carried out throughout the interval January 1, 2021, till the top of elections within the 5 states. The identical can be anticipated to have a margin of error of +/-3% at Macro degree and +/-5% at Micro Level and should not essentially have factored in all standards / features and was broadly based mostly upon solutions offered by the respondents throughout the interviews.)
