An index designed to observe turns in U.S. enterprise cycles fell for the fifteenth straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening client outlook and elevated unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases because the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession.
The Conference Board on Thursday mentioned its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future financial exercise, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised lower of 0.6% in May. The decline was barely higher than the median expectation amongst economists in a Reuters ballot for a 0.6% lower.
“Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior supervisor of enterprise cycle indicators at The Conference Board, mentioned in a press release. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economic system is probably going to be in recession from the present third quarter to the primary quarter of 2024.
“Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further,” Zabinska-La Monica mentioned.
The Conference Board mentioned the contraction within the LEI is accelerating, falling 4.2% over the past six months in contrast to 3.8% between June and December 2022.
