February 26, 2024 11:59 am | Updated 11:59 am IST – Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
The world’s commerce Ministers gathered in the U.A.E. on February 26 for a high-level WTO assembly with no clear prospects for breakthroughs, amid geopolitical tensions and disagreements.
The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO’s) thirteenth ministerial convention (MC13), scheduled to run till February 29 in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, is the primary in two years.
The WTO is hoping for progress, significantly on fishing, agriculture and digital commerce.
But huge offers are unlikely because the physique’s guidelines require full consensus amongst all 164 member states — a tall order in the present local weather.
“I don’t have hopes that a very substantive agreement will be announced,” mentioned Marcelo Olarreaga, Professor of Economics on the University of Geneva.
“My impression is that the negotiators are dealing with tactical positions — how to make it look like it is the other [side] who is blocking negotiations,” he informed AFP.
Even WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has mentioned she expects the assembly to be difficult as a result of “economic and political headwinds” — from the warfare in Ukraine, assaults in the Red Sea, inflation, rising meals costs and financial difficulties in Europe and China.
Her staff is working across the clock to draft agreements for the talks, she informed journalists this month, noting that “negotiating positions are still quite tough”, notably on agriculture.
‘Miracle’
During the WTO’s final ministerial assembly, held at its Geneva headquarters in June 2022, commerce ministers nailed down a historic deal banning fisheries subsidies dangerous to marine life and agreed to a short lived patent waiver for COVID-19 vaccines.
They additionally dedicated themselves to re-establishing a dispute settlement system which Washington had dropped at a grinding halt in 2019 after years of blocking the appointment of latest judges to the WTO’s appeals court docket.
“Replicating the success, the miracle, of MC12 in 2022 will be extremely challenging,” European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis mentioned this month.
“Negotiations on the big-ticket items” — comparable to fisheries, agriculture and the e-commerce moratorium — will “remain open until the final phase of the conference”, he added.
“Negotiations on dispute settlement reform and potentially some parts of the outcome document will also be challenging.”
However, the WTO faces stress to eke out progress on reform in Abu Dhabi forward of the potential re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President.
During his 4 years in workplace from 2017 to 2021, Mr. Trump threatened to tug the United States out of the commerce physique and disrupted its skill to settle disputes.
“There will be the U.S. elections in November…so this is the last chance,” a diplomatic supply in Geneva informed AFP on situation of anonymity.
“Postponing anything until after MC13 is not a good strategy.”
Earlier this month, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai underlined Washington’s “commitment to reforming the WTO and creating a more durable multilateral trading system”.
But Olarreaga of the University of Geneva mentioned the opposite members of the WTO “cannot expect huge concessions” from the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden in an election 12 months.
‘Fragmentation’
While there may be doubt over progress on the WTO on main points comparable to agriculture, there may be hope for small advances on different fronts, significantly help for growing international locations.
On Feb. 26, two new international locations, the Comoros and East Timor, are anticipated to be accepted as WTO members.
More than 120 international locations and areas, together with China and the European Union, however not the United States, issued a ministerial declaration early on Feb. 26, marking the finalisation of an settlement aimed toward facilitating worldwide investments in improvement.
They additionally issued a submission requesting the official integration of the deal into the WTO, however some diplomats worry Opposition from India, which rejects any settlement that doesn’t embody all member states.
But amid the issue of acquiring full consensus, an increasing number of plurilateral agreements — offers with a narrower variety of signatories — are being reached, making use of solely to the taking part international locations.
Adding to the challenges for these gathering in the U.A.E., is the ongoing warfare in Gaza and associated assaults by Yemeni rebels on ships in the Red Sea, a marketing campaign that has disrupted international maritime commerce.
“The current situation is characterised by geopolitical tensions,” mentioned a European diplomat who spoke to AFP on the situation of anonymity.
“High expectations from developing nations following the financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as economic tensions due to inflation… [add to the] risk of fragmentation of the global economy,” the diplomat mentioned.
